Cause for optimism as data shows falling Covid-19 case rates in Wigan

Numbers could be moving in the right direction after weeks in which the borough has recorded some of the highest infection rates of the novel coronavirus anywhere in the country.

There were 2,060 cases in the borough in the seven days up to November 4, a rate of 626.8 per 100,000 people.

This is the lowest seven-day average case rate per 100,000 residents that has been seen in Wigan since October 22.

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It is also a drop of some 7.6 per cent from the seven-day average figure of 678.5 cases per 100,000 residents recorded a week previously.


Some media suggested on Tuesday that the figures could be about to look even rosier, with case rates for Wigan dropping beneath 600 per 100,000 residents giving a week-on-week decrease of some 14 per cent.

The Government’s Covid-19 dashboard, though, only has seven-day averages for the period ending five days before the website was last updated.

This is because the official website, which displays Public Health England (PHE) data, includes cases by specimen date and this can sometimes be incomplete for the most recent days.

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These figures represent people with at least one lab-confirmed positive test result.

Despite the time lag, there does appear to be grounds for more positive thinking in Wigan as the borough endures the second national lockdown in response to the novel coronavirus.

The picture is starting to look rosier for Greater Manchester as a whole too, with the majority of the 10 boroughs in the city-region now showing falling week-by-week case rates.

However, it should be stressed that the Wigan figures are still among the highest being recorded by local authorities in the country.

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The daily case rates for Wigan are also declining, with 219 recorded on November 6. That was the lowest single-day figure recorded in the borough for a week, with 192 on November 1.

The figures of 219 for November 6, 233 for November 5 and 241 for November 4 are a significant decrease from the spike of 432 Covid-19 cases recorded on November 2.

The data recorded since early July has included testing for Covid-19 from both pillar one, which is done by the NHS and PHE, and pillar two which is overseen by the Government and involves Lighthouse laboratories working in partnership with the public, private and academic sectors.

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