Are Wigan Warriors safe in play-offs spots... and can they reach 3rd?

The logic behind using win percentage - rather than accrued points - to decide this Super League table may seem sensible given the number of games postponed due to Covid-19.

But it certainly makes the race for play-offs spots difficult to decipher.

With three rounds left before the top-six peel away for the Grand Final race, fourth-placed Wigan are in a solid position.

Their victory at Castleford was married with the fact the sides closest to them – Warrington in front, pus Leeds, Cas (obviously), Hull FC and Hull KR behind – all lose.

The Warriors, who have played more games than any other team, are on 59.04%.

Best case scenario, they win their remaining three matches and finish on 64%.

And that means third spot is still attainable, as Wire, on 69.4%, would finish on 57% if they lost their remaining games against Wigan, Salford and Castleford.

While the play-offs are designed to favour the higher-placed side, in truth there is little advantage to finishing third or fourth as both have to navigate the same path to the semi-finals.

But are Wigan at risk of dropping out of the play-offs now?

Probably not, but this is when it gets tricky.

Although there are only three rounds remaining, we don’t yet know for sure whether Super League and the RFL will try and rearrange matches which were postponed due to Covid. Hull KR, for example, have played five games fewer than Wigan. Hull FC, four games fewer.

If those postponed games aren't rearranged, and the sides below Wigan only play their remaining three rounds, then mathematically, each has the potential to nudge ahead.

If the Warriors lose their last three games – to Warrington, Hull FC and Catalans – they will finish on 52%.

Leeds’ best-case would be 58%, while Castleford (56%), Hull FC (52.3%) and Hull KR (55%) would achieve a higher win-percentage if they won all their remaining matches.

But here’s the good news for Wigan – they can’t all win their remaining games.

Castleford have yet to play Hull KR and Warrington; Leeds face Hull FC and Hull KR. Clearly, there can only be one winner.

The play-offs, meanwhile, will see fixtures between 3rd-6th and 4th-5th in the opening round (eliminators), with the victors going to the semi-finals to take on 1st and 2nd, with places in the Grand Final up for grabs.

Incidentally, Warrington and Hull FC drew a match, from which they each got half the value (around 2.5%) of what they would have got had they won.