JAMES GRUNDY MP: ​Russian war of aggression must end

When Parliament returns after recess, we will see the first King’s Speech in over 70 years, setting out the priorities for the rest of this Parliament.

Of course, whilst His Majesty King Charles reads out the speech, it is not written by him, but rather contains the policy objectives of the government of the day, in this case those set out by PM Rishi Sunak.

I suspect this will be the last King’s Speech before the General Election, likely to be held in late 2024 (although in theory the election could be held in January 2025, though that is extremely unlikely).

It will be interesting to see the full range of policies laid out by PM Rishi Sunak to take us through to the next General Election.

Any programme will of course be overshadowed by the ongoing Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, which has done so much to disturb international markets over the last year.

From communist Cuba to capitalist Germany, resource shortages and high fuel and energy prices are driving both inflation and interest rates higher around the world.

We are used to seeing wars in far-flung places around the world on our television screens, but it has been a very long time since we faced severe economic impacts as a result of one.

The last such major economic shock to the UK and world economy caused by conflict was the oil shock in the mid 1970's, caused by war and revolution in the Middle East. Needless to say, this was before I was born, and that time will only be remembered by people today collecting their pensions, the youngest of which would have been in their early twenties at the time.

The larger and in many ways more important question is, once the Russian war in Ukraine is over, will the world economy shake off the after effects of the conflict quickly, or will the economic impacts be felt over a much longer term?

No one yet knows the answer to this question, the underlying robustness of every economy have been severely tested by the Covid crisis that immediately preceded the war in Ukraine.

This is the central challenge of all governments around the world over the next few years, although of course, firstly the Russian war of aggression must end, inevitably in Russian defeat, and the sooner, the better, for Ukraine, Britain, and the world.